Overview
UK trade statistics measure the total value of UK exports and imports of goods and services in current prices, chained volume measures and implied deflators. They are an essential input into the National Accounts, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), quarterly Balance of Payments outputs and the annual Blue Book and Pink Book.
Why we did this review
This review considers the progress ONS has already made, and the further work required before the trade statistics can be considered for re-accreditation.
In 2014, after being made aware of errors in the expenditure estimates for UK residents’ visits abroad and overseas residents’ visits to the UK, we removed the UK trade statistics’ National Statistics status (now called accredited official statistics status). Given this error, and an error in data supply that occurred earlier that year, we completed a re-assessment against the Code in 2015. This assessment set out 13 requirements for ONS to meet before we would consider re-accrediting the statistics.
Trade statistics are key for use in policy and decision making. Therefore, it is essential that the trade statistics are of high quality and that users can trust that they comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This review covers the extent to which ONS has met the requirements from the assessment in 2015. Considering that it has been several years since this assessment, we also provide our current view of the trade statistics’ compliance with the Code.
Highlighted findings
ONS has made significant progress since the UK trade statistics were de-accredited in 2014. ONS set out an ambitious development plan and committed to significant changes to improve the trade statistics, which has seen the frequency, coverage and granularity of outputs increase.
To provide users with additional insights into the statistics, ONS has published several articles that, for example, provide information about data collection changes or specific trade topics.
Revisions are an expected part of producing statistics, especially when the underlying data are survey-based. However, the revisions to the trade in services estimates are large and potentially biased.
ONS has made significant progress to understand and begin quantifying the factors and causes of the UK’s bilateral trade asymmetries. ONS produced several articles on its analysis of trade asymmetries, has been involved in international work and expanded the International Trade in Services survey to minimise asymmetries where possible.
Further development work has been limited by high staff turnover, loss of knowledge and vacancies in the trade team. Additionally, inefficient and complex legacy systems slow down production and increase the risk of errors.
Our judgement
ONS has made significant progress, and it is clear how much work has gone into improving and developing these statistics since their de-accreditation. However,
based on our findings and engagement with users, we have concluded that some areas for improvement remain.
We have identified four requirements that ONS must fulfil for the statistics to be considered for re-accreditation. These requirements supersede the previous requirements from the 2015 assessment and are focused on the following areas:
- Improving information around and analysing the revisions to the trade in services estimates, including considering whether there is bias in early estimates.
- Bringing together existing work on trade asymmetries.
- Updating quality and methodology information.
- Reviewing resources, reducing single points of failure and improving systems.
Next steps
ONS should meet these requirements within six months and update us on its progress.
We are trialling new ways to make our judgements in OSR clearer and more transparent. This new overview page, at the start of reports and compliance checks, is part of this. We welcome your feedback – please email regulation@statistics.gov.uk.